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forecasts and the history of the media clouds

a forecast for the communication of the future, it is helpful to look back in time to throw and start the attempt to discover patterns in the evolution to the present.

on digital Convergence carrier ...
have shared stages with the first of our "Communications 2020" activities in the past year, Kai Heddings and I made a trip to a presentation slide from the year 1995. On this film we had established as part of a university seminar, a then very controversial thesis. We claimed that there would be a convergence in the near future support, which combines all digitalizeable media and communication forms as sources and digital interface. That's fifteen years ago and we were able to experience the occurrence of this thesis, because this digital convergence carrier is now a reality. He is a notebook, smartphone, tablet PC or Desktop PC used millions of times.

... to other theories of a future communication ...
From this realization, we have established in our expert survey in 2009, a few new theories in the near and distant future of communications. These theories were judged by some well-known media experts in various stages as possible or impossible. The results of this survey have surprised some, and very clearly demonstrated the wide differences of expert judgments based on different, personal experience. For Kai and me has brought the study found some valuable lessons that flow now in counseling, workshops and all customer projects.

... to illustrate media clouds from 1960 to 2010 ...
After K2020 expert survey I was looking for then use the shipyard project team and some external staff in the recent past, the media and communications history after discernible patterns in the communication and the use of media.

goal of this project was to illustrate the changes or developments in the field of modern human communication - without having to write a journal article or a book. We wanted to create an illustration again, the almost "at a glance" makes some of the challenges of our field operation significantly.

The result is an illustration that we have "History of the Media Clouds" or the English version of "Clouds Media History" mentioned. We show that a simplified picture of media use history from 1960 to 2010. This is an example and as a couple of snapshots (male) students represented German origin, each representing their media use in the years 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010. In some cases, these students could be seen as a vanguard of their time, since they represent the respective sample year the so-called early adopters.

media clouds: Comparison 1960 and 2010 (higher resolution on request)

To the students about the media used and means of communication and forms of communication of their time in the form of clouds shown. The various forms of media and communication, we have divided into simple clusters that formed the cloud concept. A change in the media usage of the past fifty years it has become by the changes within the cloud an impressive way. Even if this figure from country to country in details may be slightly different, this development exemplifies every industrialized country in the west World - particularly as concerns the period from 1990 to 2010.

At this point I must point out, however, some blurring of the illustration or the terms. We recognize that we have not shown all media and forms of communication in detail and their significance for the respective sample year is not visible. Some of the displayed expressions could appear in other clouds, but are only placed at the point where it seemed particularly important. Also, we have deliberately omitted the (presumably other types of) representation of female students. The consideration of all these additional parameters would have made a confusing illustration of a compact graph. Our presentation is no general "World Declaration" offer in the areas of communication and media. Rather, it is intended as a clarification and illustration of a growing and changing challenges in relation to the use of media to us modern humans.

Illustration: History of the Media Clouds 1960 - 2010 (V1.1DE as JPG )

... regarding future estimates ...
A by-product of the history of media, a further clouds forecast for the communication 2020 is energized, which (of course) is the discussion and yet to prove their Vorhersagungsgehalt. Where this surely the essential point is that our communication will change in the next ten years, new communication spaces are created and we probably will draw (at least on a scientific level) to changing metaphors to describe the coming communication platforms.

media cloud in 2020

The representation of the 2020s but I can save time on a later blog entry, because I was in the pre-tests to illustrate have found that there designated future scenario distracts greatly from the other contents of the illustration. Therefore, "Luke" still in the mist of all the future communication wrapped.

especially the discussion on the media K2020 clouds and the resulting forecast future results in a couple of offers that have been found in the processing of the issue as a useful supplement for professional communicators.

... to workshops for the development of media literacy
We believe that, in particular an internal drafting the conclusions of the "Media Cloud" Illustration for large businesses, professional communicators may result (agencies, press officer, etc.), institutions and public institutions (like schools) to useful results, we offer short workshops on this topic. Because in our view, targeted communication and media use has never been as complicated and engaging as it is today. It may make sense for anyone to develop a sense of the pitfalls of modern communication.

rights
this illustration, we have marked with a Creative Commons copyright to it for interested students, students and teachers to make a useful basis for discussion. For commercial use alone keep Christoph Steinhardt and throw the project Copyright. The findings of the study results, we will work to incorporate into current and future projects. Commercial use of the illustration or parts of it thus always requires the written consent of the shipyard project. This is especially true for business presentations, workshops and lectures on the topic. Thus we wish to establish include a feedback loop for future improvements.

Click here for the download of the "Media Cloud" Illustration (version 1.1DE) as JPG . This file was made on 01.01.2011 newly ready - old links and bookmarks are no longer valid.

know more about the Media wants to clouds or communication workshops 2020-know can throw you on the project or my Xing profile take contact with me. Constructive comments on this blog I am also.

thanks and greetings
for critical and helpful comments during the discussions and research assistance I thank all the staff of project-yard particular Dr. Anne Klien , Sabine Steinhardt, Kai Heddings , Bernd Burhoff and Gerrit Peters . Gerrit is a special thanks for the illustration of the students. Thank you!